The April 22, 2025, terrorist attack in Kashmir that claimed the lives of 26 tourists triggered harsh diplomatic repercussions between India and Pakistan.
India's economic and military superiority contrasts harshly with Pakistan's dependence on aid and unlimited nuclear option.
Sri Lanka's Fragile Neutrality - Attempting to rebound from its own crises, Sri Lanka is threatened severely by economic and security consequences.
Water, Cyber, and Proxy Wars: Besides militaries, water resources, drone penetrations, and hidden cyber attacks are also engaged in the war.

The India-Pakistan dispute, a simmering legacy of British colonial rule, has burst again into global headlines. The April 22, 2025, Pahalgam attack in Kashmir, killing 26 tourists and triggering a diplomatic breakdown, has fueled fears of nuclear war. For Sri Lanka, a nation still recovering from its own civil war and economic meltdown, the crisis threatens to destroy its very existence and pose moral dilemmas.

History: How It All Began

When the British left in 1947, they split India into two India and Pakistan. This meant that 14 million people were forced to move and more than one million were killed. The region of Kashmir, which was Muslim-majority, became a main issue. India and Pakistan have fought three wars over it and continue to fight smaller wars. India possesses most of Kashmir, while Pakistan has a smaller part. Both countries utilize national pride and patriotism to justify spending on militaries and funding militants.

One group calling itself the Resistance Front (TRF), to which India blames Pakistan, took credit for the recent Pahalgam attack. India responded by suspending a water-sharing treaty (the Indus Waters Treaty) and kicking out Pakistani diplomats. Pakistan retaliated with a ban on Indian planes from flying into its airspace and suspending a crucial peace agreement.

Military and Money: Unequal Powers

Military Power

India has 1.4 million soldiers close to two times Pakistan's 654,000. India also has more fighter planes and warships. Both countries have nuclear weapons. India vows never to use them first, but Pakistan does not make such a promise and threatens to use them if it feels extremely threatened.

Economic Divide

The Indian economy is worth $3.7 trillion tenfold Pakistan's $370 billion economy. That shows that India has the luxury to spend more on defense without injuring its economy. Pakistan has the luxury of depending on IMF loans and Chinese loans. Pakistan's economy would crash down if war becomes prolonged.

A full-scale war would also hurt international commerce especially oil pipelines over the Arabian Sea. It might displace millions of people and could even cause worldwide crop failures due to a "nuclear winter."

Sri Lanka's Hard Place

Sri Lanka is trying to stay neutral, but it's not simple. India, its largest trade partner and recent bailout savior, wants low-key assistance. But many Muslims and Tamils in Sri Lanka feel for Kashmiris, so it's hard for politicians to take sides.

Economic Risks

Trade Disruption: 60% of Sri Lanka's imports arrive through India or nearby. War would raise shipping costs and shut down Colombo Port, a major hub.

Tourism Hit: At the very time tourism was gathering momentum—especially in places like Jaffna—a war would scare tourists off again.

Security Risks

Sri Lanka's ineffective air and naval forces are unable to handle genuine threats, like accidental airspace invasions. Intelligence foretells that reviving, aging rebel factions or extremists will try to take advantage of the chaos.

Behind the Scenes: Spies, Friends, and Backroom Wars

Pakistan and Extremists

India accuses Pakistan's intelligence agency ISI of patronizing groups like TRF and Lashkar-e-Taiba (guilty of the 2008 Mumbai attacks). The old U.S. documents confirm that Pakistan used to use militant groups to intimidate India.

International Responses

China supports Pakistan with weapons but avoids overt war to protect its investments in the region.
The U.S. secretly advises India to keep calm while publicly endorsing anti-terror operations.
Russia sells arms to both but wants stable oil prices.

Sri Lanka as a Peace Facilitator

Sri Lanka was suggested by Iran as a place where secret peace talks could be held in April 2025

something Sri Lanka has already performed. But third-party mediation does not sit well with India, and Sri Lanka's economic concerns make it increasingly hard to assume this role.

"For small nations, neutrality is not weakness it’s survival." a recurring principle in South Asian diplomacy, echoed by regional analysts and foreign policy scholars.

What Sri Lanka Can Do Next

Diplomacy

Remain neutral, call for peace in such forums as the UN and SAARC, and call on countries like UAE and Qatar to help as mediators.

Economy

Store petroleum and medicines, map alternative sea routes (like through Singapore), and prepare to tap into emergency IMF funds.

Security

Speed naval modernization with Japanese help and upgrade coastal radar systems.

Conclusion

This India-Pakistan war does not spare any nation it looms over the whole subcontinent. Sri Lanka looks on: a lesson to have leaned too much on larger neighbors. When Pakistan's defense minister threatens to invade India, the world doesn't look away. With nuclear bombs at stake, nobody truly wins.

Articles tagged with “srilankadiplomacy”

India Pakistan Tensions Viewed From Sri Lankan Perspective